Second Nigeria war: Analysis of possible event playout by Alex Bells

Second Nigeria war is an event we may all never wish for but then Nigeria a country with a onetime civil war experience is being faced with another developing unrest similar to what caused the first Nigeria civil war (Nigerian Biafra war) only that this time the war might just get bigger and may last longer. This analysis is very important because maybe if we understand what is at stake we may decide to give peace a try. The second Nigeria war will most likely start with a major attack against the majority Igbos in the North or the Fulani in the South when they both refuse to go home after the expiration of the ultimatum given by the Northern Youth Forum that Southerners should vacate the North, then a reprisal attack from the Igbos in the North or the Fulani in the South will categorize the first few weeks of the unrest, then the Igbos and other remaining Southerners mainly Igbos will retreat to the North Central while the remaining Fulani in the East will also retreat back to the North Central States, being that the North Central States are going to be against the core North, then the North Central is going to be the major theatre of the war for the first one year into the battle as the retreating Igbos and the retreating Fulani meets at crossroad in the North Central the battle will get intense, with the rest of the groups in the North Central mounting a strong resistance to the Hausa Fulani encroachment then the retreating Igbos will support them in the fight.

The Eastern region will be the very last region to feel the very real effect of the war given the geographical placement of the Eastern region the North Central and the South West will naturally serve as buffer Zones, the East will only be susceptible to air raid which will likely not be targeted on the East for the first two years of the war, given the security and calm in the East, the war will bring a new wave of business for the Igbos in the Eastern Region, a deal in arms, the Igbos in Lagos will start importing arms while a lot of local arm production will be going on in cities like Aba, Onitsha and Warri, then  in the South West there will be cases of few unrests for the first 6 months of the war but no major fight, then after the Hausa/ Fulani will meet a strict resistance from the allied Middle Belt and Eastern force in the North central then they will be pushed further up North living them no other option than to invade the South West from the North East, The Yorubas will frown at that and mount a strict resistance defending their territory, the Huasa/Fulani will attack back leading to the first major impact of the war in Yoruba Land, The Edo people will look up to the Oba of Benin to decide whether to support the Yorubas or not, but the Easterners won’t be willing to support the Yorubas but Igbo importers in Lagos will be glad to sell arms to Yorubas.

 Lagos will be the last Yoruba State to feel the real impact of the war given that with no Forest in Lagos the Hausa/Fulani war method of staying in the bush and sudden attack will not work in Lagos and also, the  Yorubas will defend Lagos with their last Blood, that is if the Hausa/Fulani had the upper hand in Yoruba Land because at first, the Yorubas will not take the fight seriously but with an impending impact to Lagos the Easterners will understand that if Lagos Fall then the whole of Nigeria will feel the heat, The Easterners in Lagos will Join the Yorubas to Defend Lagos then Edo may tighten its borders or send support to Lagos, at this point the Army and other federal agencies may assume that they are seeing a near collapse of the Nigeria state there will be an impending corruption, distrust and unrest within the Army as most soldiers will be apologetic to their region and some elements in the military will be secretly supporting their region, at the initial time the fracas in the army will seem containable but the major problem will be when a visible divide will emerge, the Nigeria Military after few months of policing will get really involved in the fight, and will be conducting a few air raid, with North Central in a fight and South west in another fight then Boko Haram in the North East will have more space to unleash their mayhem as the Nigeria Military will not be able to fight in three fronts, then Boko haram will take over the entire North East and lead the War against the South West in a Bid to expand their Islamic State.

Back in the East, the South East keeps flourishing making more money from the arms deal and the South South will be making even more money from illegal oil sale as the first few months of the war will see most international oil companies evacuating their staff and closing down most of their facilities then the rest of the country will have to depend on illegal makeshift refineries situated in the South South of the country, with the South East arms and with South South oil the South will have steady energy and booming business and this is almost 1 year and six months into the war, Abuja will fall to North Central influence and the defence headquarters may face lots of difficulties with most Fulani including government official retreating back up North then Sokoto will naturally emerge as the new capital of Northern Nigeria , the Yorubas with the help of the Edos and The Easterners in Yoruba Land will start beating back the Hausa Fulani up North that is if they really did their Job well otherwise the Hausa/Fulani with their Militia will overrun the rest of the south west within two years into the war, Lagos will not fall at this time because the Hausa Fulani war tactics will still not work in Lagos given that Lagos have no forest where they can build their camp remember that Hausa/Fulani Militia will be attacking mostly in the night and early hours of the morning while in the day they stay in their camp in the bush, as long as Lagos has not fallen then the war has not even started because the Yorubas will have the upper hand in logistic as there will be more arms and other supplies in the hands of the Yorubas given the placement of Lagos and a good trade relationship with the East and Ghana.

With war really getting intense and with Abuja engulfed in turmoil as most Hausa Fulani Left for Sokoto the Easterners will set up a new Eastern defence headquarters which may be situated in Calabar or any other Eastern State, then the Easterners will start experimenting with the Seaports in the South South as they begin to fear Lagos may fall, the impact of the international community will begin to become more profound, although most countries will choose to stay in the fence for the first two years of the war with countries like the United State, UK and Ghana leading peace talks without taking real side Russian and Chinese black markets and government will be engaging in arms deal, Fulani dominated countries will support the core North and Muslim countries like Turkey will send relief material to the Hausa/Fulani without giving them outright support to avoid it turning to a Christian Muslim war, so the impact of the international community will mainly focus on peace keeping, humanitarian aid and arms deal but no full time recognition as the war is still within one country but now 3 years into the war more casualties in Yoruba Land all heading to Lagos that had been suffering from over population then Lagos will become filled with crime as more arms are in the hands of hungry people, in other to survive, some elements in Lagos will start shop lifting in the night and other crimes signalling the first major security challenge in Lagos.

With 3 years and few months into the war the Fulani’s in other nearby countries will move in to occupy the lands already taken from the defeated Yoruba States then the war takes a new form with Abuja taken from housa/Fulani by the North Central/Eastern alliance and the entire South West apart from Lagos already taken from the  Yorubas then The newly Formed Eastern Defense Headquarter will match up towards south west so as to prevent the fall of Lagos and the eminent defeat of the Yorubas because after the fall of the entire south west then the East will be the next target, then the East will send troops to Lagos but will open talks with Sokoto the now capital of the Core North, the East will also begin to lobby the international community in preparation for a full blown war, remember that the East had had a onetime war experience and they understand the impact of an ill prepared war and they also understands the impact of going to war without the blessings of the power blocks of the international community, the flourishing and oil rich East could now easily gain the favour of the international community with a positive nod from the vibrant but war torn South West, the Fulani’s will suffer a great defeat in the last fight for Lagos as the Eastern/South West alliance push the Hausa/Fulani up North, Sokoto may decide to heed the intervention of the East to give peace a try but if the talk with Sokoto fails then the East will declare a new country maybe Biafra or whatever name and move to secure its borders carving a large chunk if not the entire North central into its map, then at this time the Yorubas will declare their own country forming a strong Alliance with the New Country in the East, the new Eastern country with so much money from the four years of business flourish and an overwhelming international recognition may agree to support the newly formed Yoruba republic, but if Sokoto really heed the call of the East in exchange for one Nigeria and a promise for a rebuild then at this time it is already 4 and half year into the fight, the North Central being a little impacted and the Core North really feeling a deep impact as they would lose more than a quarter of their population, the South west will also lose a lot but with Lagos still almost intact they will look up with a hope and thank the Easterners for being their brother’s keeper then these four and a half year the Eastern region had been flourishing and the Igbo man will look up to the sky and say isn’t this a good pay back for the Biafran war, at this point the Igbos will not ask for Biafra again because the only reason Sokoto listened to the East was because they say we are one Nigeria and if you don’t stop the war we will break away but if you stop we will rebuild the North then came a new Nigeria and you already know what it will look like the East will have the upper hand, the North Central and the South West will have lots of casualties and a little ruin, the Core North will be in near complete ruin and will continue to be at war for a little longer as Boko Haram had gotten way bigger and unchecked.

If Sokoto still kept fighting and the Eastern region declared a new country and support the Yorubas to form theirs, the new Yoruba country will still suffer attack from the Hausa/Fulani from time to time but the New Eastern/North Central mainly Christian country will always resist the Fulani from the North central Buffer zone with years of war the Hausa/Fulani will be left with poorer economy and very low standard of living and may be hit with epidemics, series of infections and lack of food and social amenities an aftermath of the war remember that the Hausa/Fulani had never been pragmatic in real time development so, with limited hospitals to care for the large population, most of them may end up seeking refuge in the nearby North Central area, they will have to open new trade and dependency with their earlier co-North in the north central the newly found Eastern/North Central country will put them in strict check but will still welcome them as far as they remain humble and peaceful, the South west will recover really fast and the new country with the help of Lagos and the New Middle Belt/Eastern country alliance will flourish after a while but that will not stop minor attacks on the north east borders of the new South West country as core North continues to have more humanitarian disasters, disease and unrest, Lagos now the new capital of the New South West county. Then on the war may continue or stop but whether it continues or Stops then it may not be a Nigeria war anymore and it may now be a fight just to stay alive.

Just My Analysis Though, Alex Bells.

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